There are approximately 5.8 million Afghan refugees living outside Afghanistan, with an estimated 700,000 to 800,000 residing in Europe. Most of them arrived since the start of the 2015 migration wave, and their numbers surged since the Taliban took power in 2021. Their integration into European society is typically fragile: their labor market indicators lag behind those of the majority population, while police statistics in Germany and Austria indicate an overrepresentation of suspects of Afghan nationality. The possibility of returns is, however, limited: due to the prohibition on forced returns, documentation issues, the unresolved relationship with the Taliban authorities, and the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, mass repatriation is not realistic in the short term. The most likely EU strategy therefore remains limited, case-by-case technical cooperation with the Taliban, without diplomatic recognition.
The full text of the analysis in Hungarian is available here
