The armed conflicts in Iran and the Middle East, as well as in Pakistan and Afghanistan, in February 2026 could adversely affect the security and migration situation in Turkey, which currently maintains a neutral stance. If the fighting drags on, Ankara could face the arrival of several million refugees, while the Turkish leadership considers accepting new arrivals acceptable only as a last resort and on a limited scale. The country must continue to provide for the care and integration of several million Syrians currently under temporary protection. Armed conflict in Syria, as well as deficiencies in basic infrastructure and economic conditions, could trigger new waves of migration, while also slowing the pace of returns from Turkey and other host countries. Iraq’s potential involvement in the current Middle East conflict could pose an additional risk. Furthermore, as one of the key transit countries along the Eastern Mediterranean migration route, Turkey may also face indirect migration impacts stemming from regional crises further afield, such as an escalation of the conflict in Sudan.
The full text of the analysis in Hungarian is available here
