In 2026, Somalia faces one of the most severe humanitarian crises of the past decades. The famine and refugee crisis plaguing the country stem from the combined effects of four mutually reinforcing factors: prolonged drought, armed conflicts, geopolitical developments, and a dramatic decline in international aid. According to a UN report, at least 6 million people in the country—including 2 million children—are at risk of severe food shortages, representing nearly 40 percent of the population.
The current crisis has historical roots. The famines of 1991 and 2011 highlighted the vulnerability of the Somali state and the shortcomings of the international aid system. However, the situation in 2026 is exacerbated by the dismantling of the humanitarian aid system and the armed conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a doubling of food and fuel prices in import-dependent Somalia. As a result of the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe, even more Somalis may be forced to flee their country or become internally displaced persons.
The full text of the analysis in Hungarian is available here
