The Iranian conflict that broke out in 2026 could bring certain benefits to Russia in the short run: destabilization of the Middle East would increase energy prices, which could strengthen Russian budget revenues, while Western attention and military resources would be partially divided between Ukraine and the Middle East. The crisis could thus temporarily create a more favorable strategic environment for Moscow. In the longer term, however, the picture is much more complex. Iran is one of Russia’s most important regional partners, and any possible military or political weakening could weaken Moscow’s Middle Eastern partner network and diplomatic space. The conflict could also cause tensions in energy market cooperation, especially in the OPEC+ system, while highlighting that Russia’s influence in the region is more limited than the Kremlin suggested previously.
The full text of the analysis in Hungarian is available here
